As I noted in this column two weeks ago, polls are about as reliable as palm readers. One thing that appears to be true, however, is that the Keystone State will be the key to whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump becomes president of the United States.

The popular vote is interesting, but it has nothing to do with who will occupy the White House in January. The prize goes to the candidate who gains a simple majority of 270 or more electoral votes from the 538 electors representing the 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Most of the states are pretty fixed as “blue” (Democrat Party) or “red” (Republican Party). In fact, there are really only seven states that are considered up for grabs: Nevada (with 6 electoral votes), Wisconsin (10), Arizona (11), Michigan (15), North Carolina (16), Georgia (16) and our very own Pennsylvania. It is the prize among these states as PA has 19 electoral votes, ranking 5th among the 50 states and the District of Columbia.

If the election were held today (which would confuse many people as they expect it to be on November 5th), and assuming that the ‘red’ and ‘blue’ states will vote as such, Trump/Vance could reach 281 electoral votes by winning four of those seven states; Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. Without Pennsylvania, Trump would have to win one on the Great Lakes: Michigan or Wisconsin. Both are strongly leaning Democratic, so for Trump, it would seem his path is Pennsylvania or bust.

For Harris/Walz to be victorious, they must win Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, but also must win either North Carolina or Georgia to reach the 270-vote threshold. Quite frankly, without Pennsylvania, it seems extremely doubtful Harris/Walz could win. So, putting it all together, one way or another, Pennsylvania will be on the finish line of this race.

This explains why both presidential wannabes have been campaigning quite actively, particularly in western Pennsylvania. Both are trying to widen their popularity as polls show Trump gets 88% of the Republican vote and Harris gets 88% of Democrats. Among Pennsylvania voters unaffiliated with either major party, Trump receives 47% to Harris’s 41%.

Pennsylvania is arguably the most ‘down the middle’ state in the United States and has been for almost a decade. Trump won Pennsylvania in his 2016 race over Hillary Clinton by a narrow margin of 0.72 percent. In the 2020 election, Joe Biden won the state by just 1.17 percent. The difference was the edge that Biden had as a result of his roots in Scranton, the sixth most populated city in Pennsylvania. It also helped that he was Catholic, which goes a long way in Scranton, which at the time was one of the most Catholic cities in the country. Harris does not have Biden’s advantages, but that is not the only handicap the Vice President has in the Keystone State.

Democrats top Republicans for total registered voters statewide — 3.9 million compared to nearly 3.6 million — but that is not the end of the story. Republicans have registered more new voters in Pennsylvania this year through August (103,745) compared to Democrats (97,444). The Democrats will certainly win big in Philadelphia and Allegheny counties, to be sure, but in the rest of the state, they are trying to hold ground, whereas the Republicans are gaining.

This is evidenced in many counties, especially in western Pennsylvania. Beaver County had twice as many Democrats than Republicans in 1998; this year, the Republicans now have 3000 registered voters more than the Democrats. Fayette County had three times the number of Democrats to Republicans in 2000; Republicans now have 7,000 more registered than the Democrats. Washington, Westmoreland, Indiana, and Butler Counties have seen significant increases in Republican registrations versus flat or marginal gains on the Democratic side. Butler County especially took off for the Republicans. Twenty years ago, there were 51,700 registered Republicans in Butler County, and now there are 80,800. In that period, the Democrat Party saw a drop of almost 3,000 registered voters.

This explains why the Western part of Pennsylvania has been getting so much attention from Kamala Harris and Donald Trump recently. Supposedly, a significant portion of the voting population is still not sure who they are voting for.

But for us in the north-central part of this Keystone state, we should go to the polls or get our mail ballot in the mail because this election will resonate for a long time. Sadly, one-third of Pennsylvania citizens historically do not vote. For those in that category, remember the words of President Barack Obama, “There’s no such thing as a vote that doesn’t matter.”