This week is the fourth anniversary of an event that should get more attention. The COVID-19 shutdowns began in Pennsylvania on March 13, 2020. At the time, I thought how appropriate it was that it was Friday the 13th. Believe it or not, there is a word for the fear of this day: Paraskevidekatriaphobia. The strangeness of this word fits the strangeness that began that day.
It was the weekend of the annual West Branch Builders Show in Williamsport. For over 60 years, this event has had exhibitors coming from all over the state, with thousands attending. But in 2020, it was canceled. Governor Wolf declared that we must all hunker down and avoid personal interaction for the next two weeks to “flatten the curve” of the disease, which meant the builders’ show had to go. In Governor Wolf’s defense, he was following what other governors and even President Trump had proposed. The mantra was to “follow the science” that was being proposed by experts to avoid human interaction due to the threat of a national pandemic.
Yet, this “science” was not as settled as it was projected. In 2005, President George W. Bush put together a group of scientists to develop a national strategy for a pandemic. It was led by Dr. D. A. Henderson, perhaps the most highly revered epidemiologist of the 20th century. Henderson didn’t trust computer models as they couldn’t possibly anticipate the complexity of human behavior. He stated, “There is simply too little experience to predict how a 21st-century population would respond.” Henderson felt that the worst thing officials could do was to overreact. President Bush was pushing for strategy, and the final paper of these scientists concluded, “Experience has shown that communities faced with epidemics or other adverse events respond best and with the least anxiety when the normal social functioning of the community is least disrupted.”
So, fifteen years before, the experts had figured out that if everyone kept their heads, even if many were getting sick, the best way forward was to keep on course as best as possible. And, of course, this course was ignored. Dr. Fauci and other public health “experts” found themselves as media rock stars, and the more they emphasized the level of the crisis and the need for isolation, the more screen time they got.
And what was the result? The ‘science’ that was to save lives likely did more harm than good. Journalists Joe Nocera and Bethany McLean put all this together in a recent bestselling book, The Big Fail: What the Pandemic Revealed About Who America Protects and Who It Leaves Behind. A Kirkus Review noted, “In their latest eye-opening collaboration, Nocera and McLean document countless mistakes and their consequences in a ‘series of cascading dominoes.’”
Yes, President Trump’s Operation Warp Speed did indeed accelerate the production and distribution of a vaccine. However, Trump also followed Dr. Anthony Fauci, who fired back against criticism toward him, declaring, “Science and truth are being attacked.” Yet, Fauci also admitted to MSNBC’s Chuck Todd that his coronavirus guidance did change. “As you get more information, it’s essential that you change your opinion because you’ve got to be guided by the science and the current data.” In Fauci’s world, he is right even when he is wrong.
But the science certainly seemed to be motivated by more than just science. The most impressive study was the Great Barrington Declaration, drafted by three renowned epidemiologists from Harvard, Stanford, and Oxford. It has since been signed by 939,000 scientists from 40 countries around the world. They noted almost immediately the danger of the shutdowns, stating, “current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health.”
Sadly, they were exactly right. Repercussions of the government’s reaction to COVID resulted in social, economic, and educational disruptions that may resonate for decades to come, not just in the United States but across the world.
Hats off to Lycoming County Commissioners Scott Metzger, Tony Mussare, and Rick Mirabito, Director Matt McDermott, and many other department heads who helped minimize the impacts in our area during those dark days. An entire book could be written about what was going on behind the scenes by the county officials through 2020. Suffice to say, they did the best they could.
It must have been intoxicating for leaders like Governor Tom Wolf to have in the palm of their hand the power to control virtually every aspect of travel, commerce, education, all the way down to even worship services. As the British historian Lord Acton once quoted, “Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” Hopefully, when the next health crisis comes along (and it will), our state and national officials will not let it go to their head and show more common sense than nonsense.
