Mercifully, the long, contentious Presidential election contest is winding down, but it might be interesting to look back and see how Lycoming County has voted in previous Presidential elections.
Webb Weekly has researched how Lycoming County has voted in Presidential races since 1860. We have found that the Republican Presidential candidate carried this county in 31 of the 41 Presidential elections from 1860 through 2020.
In the 1860 and 1864 elections, Lycoming County was very supportive of Abraham Lincoln. In 1860, Lincoln received 6,174 votes to John Breckenridge’s 3,494 votes. Stephen Douglas, Lincoln’s old Illinois rival, received 2,402 votes, and John Bell had 187.
In 1864, Lincoln received 7,608 votes to George McClellan’s 3,401 votes. Lincoln ran ahead in Lycoming County of his statewide margin, with 55.30 percent to 51.65 statewide.
In one surprising instance, in the 1912 race, Lycoming County was carried by third-party candidate former President Theodore Roosevelt of the Bull Moose Party. Those results showed Roosevelt garnering 5,208 votes, Democrat Woodrow Wilson, who won the Presidency that year, 3,039 votes, and incumbent Republican President William Howard Taft trailing in third place in the county with 1,631 votes.
Another third-party candidate who did well but who, unlike Roosevelt, did not carry the county was H. Ross Perot, who gathered 9,170 votes for a percentage of 21.24 percent of the vote in 1992. In the next presidential canvass in 1996, he also did well, capturing almost 10 percent of the vote with a smaller 3,855 votes. The next best third-party candidate who placed fairly well was Robert LaFollette in 1924, who ran on a Progressive Party ticket. He received 10.17 percent of the vote, 2,432 votes. In 1968, Alabama Governor George C. Wallace got about six percent of the Lycoming County vote.
Six of the 10 times a non-Republican Presidential candidate carried the county occurred from 1868 to 1896.
In recent Presidential contests, the results have been very lopsided in favor of the Republicans. No Democratic Presidential candidate has earned 40 percent or more of county votes since Jimmy Carter captured 44.28 percent of the vote in 1976.
In the last eight Presidential elections, in 2020, Donald Trump had 41,480 votes to Joe Biden’s 16,921; in 2016, Donald Trump had 35,627 votes to Hillary Clinton’s 13,020 votes; in 2012, Obama won only 32.59 percent; in 2008, Obama garnered just 34.33 percent, Kerry in 2004, 31.33, Gore in 2000, 33.96, Clinton in 1996, 34.50, and Clinton in 1992, 30.84.
The worst drubbing any Democratic candidate took locally was in 1928 when Herbert Hoover crushed Al Smith 28,720 for 79.48 percentage points to Smith’s 7,132, or 19.74 percent.
Even the martyred John F. Kennedy took a beating in Lycoming County in 1960, gathering 18,351 votes for only 37.85 percent of the local vote.
Of the 41 Presidential elections between 1860 and 2020, Lycoming County voters voted for the eventual winner in 23 of them. It appears that we may be a bellwether of sorts in presidential contests, so keep your eyes on the results of the Lycoming County election night.
